Home > Gold, Mainstream failure > $2960 gold?

$2960 gold?

What a ridiculously “accurate” forecast!

Why not round it up to $3000 gold?  Has anyone ever heard of degrees of accuracy?  The chances of a forecaster getting a forecast on the gold price within $500 would be good, within $100 remarkable, but within $40?  You have got to be kidding me!

It reminds me of Treasury forecasts on economic growth (3.5%) and unemployment (6.3%), when you know they are going to be out by hundreds of times that magnitude.  Why the “.5%”?  Why the “.3%”?  To try to convince people the Treasury models are accurate, when we know they’ve NEVER been able to predict the turning points in any recession in the last 50 years?  Who are they kidding?

False “accuracy” and misleading “specificity” in forecasting are always telltale signs of mindless bureaucratic arrogance – and a warning sign that what you’re looking at is stupidity and ignorance regarding the real role of forecasting – identifying broad trends and turning points.

Categories: Gold, Mainstream failure
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